Airline Accident Rates

These accident rates are not safety ratings. There are many factors that contribute to the safety rating of an airline including, but not limited to, accident history, maintenance and operational procedures, types of training programs, age of fleet and specific routes flown.

In addition there are different ways to analyze past accident data including using number of hours flown, passenger miles completed or number of trips made. The accident rates below are based on only three basic parameters. Number of flights, the number of fatal accidents and the fatality rate of those accidents. The methodology is listed below the tables.

Aviation accidents are extremely rare, with the probability of a passenger being killed on a single flight at approximately eight million-to-one. If a passenger boarded a flight at random, once a day, everyday, it would statistically be over 21,000 years before he or she would be killed.

DISCLAIMER These accident rates should not be used to provide an assessment of an airline’s safety profile or future risk of an accident. These rates are derived from past accidents and not an estimate or prediction of future risk. There are many additional factors in judging the safety of an air carrier which are not included here. These rates are not meant to endorse or condemn any particular airline or group of airlines nor are they intended to persuade or dissuade use of any particular airline. The accident rates and method of calculation of the accident rates are solely the opinion of this web site and the creator is not responsible for how this information is used and will not be held legally responsible for any consequences arising from the use of this information. There are numerous commercial organizations that provide complete and extensive safety ratings of commercial air carriers.   


Data for 20 Years   Jan 1988 -  Dec 2007

NORTH AMERICA

Regional
Rank
Airline		 Million
Flights		 Fatal
Events		 Adj. Fatal
Events		 Last
Fatal
Accident		 Accident
Rate		 Overall
Rank
1 - 90
1 Delta Airlines 16.78 2 0.13 1996 -5.21 1
2 Southwest Airlines 14.85 0 0 None -4.73 2
4 Northwest Airlines 11.01 2 1.03 1993 -2.48 3
3 Continental Airlines/Cont. Exp. 11.84 3 1.80 1987 -1.97 5
5 US Airways 13.46 4 2.52 1994 -1.77 6
6 American Airlines 17.02 5 4.04 2001 -1.38 8
7 America West Airlines 4.10 0 0 None -1.31 9
8 Air Canada 3.93 0 0 (1983) -1.25 10
9 United Airlines 13.85 6 3.42 2001 -0.99 13
10 Alaska Airlines/Horizon Air 5.28 1 1.00 2000 -0.68 18
11 Hawaiian Airlines 1.29 0 0 None -0.41 24
12 USAir Shuttle 0.82 0 0 None -0.26 33
13 WestJet 0.73 0 0 None -0.23 34
14 Midwest Airlines 0.72 0 0 (1985) -0.23 35
15 JetBlue Airlines 0.71 0 0 None -0.23 36
16 United Express 8.95 3 2.67 1996 -0.18 37
17 ATA Airlines 0.57 0 0 None -0.18 43
18 American Eagle 11.11 4 3.72 1994 0.18 61
19 Comair 4.97 2 2.00 2006 0.42 66
20 AirTran Airways 1.58 1 1.00 1996 0.50 68
21 Aloha Airlines 1.22 1 1.00 1989 0.61 71

EUROPE

Regional
Rank
Airline		 Million
Flights		 Fatal
Events		 Adj. Fatal
Events		 Last
Fatal
Accident
 Accident
Rate		 Overall
Rank
1-90
1 Lufthansa 7.76 1 0.02 1993 -2.45 4
2 British Airways 5.45 0 0 (1985) -1.74 7
3 Iberia Airlines 3.69 0 0 (1985) -1.18 12
4 SAS Scandinavian Airlines  5.76 1 1.00 2001 -0.83 14
5 KLM /KLM Cityhopper 2.66 1 0.09 1994 -0.76 16
6 Finnair 1.97 0 0 (1963) -0.63 20
7 RyanAir 1.58 0 0 None -0.50 22
8 EasyJet 1.32 0 0 None -0.42 23
9 Aer Lingus 1.22 0 0 (1986) -0.39 25
10 Tap Air Portugal 1.03 0 0 (1977) -0.33 29
11 Austrian Airlines 0.98 0 0 (1960) -0.31 31
12 Air Europa 0.65 0 0 None -0.21 39
13 Malev-Hungarian Airlines 0.60 0 0 (1977) -0.19 41
14 Alitalia 3.72 1 1.00 1990 -0.18 40
15 Icelandair 0.55 0 0 (1951) -0.18 44
16 British Midland 1.71 1 0.40 1989 -0.14 46
17 JAT Yugslovian Airways 0.42 0 0 (1973) -0.13 47
18 Virgin Atlantic Airways 0.22 0 0 None -0.07 53
19 Ukraine International Airlines 0.15 0 0 None -0.05 56
20 Transaero Airlines 0.13 0 0 None -0.04 57
21 Air France 5.92 4 2.03 2000 0.15 60
22 Aeroflot Russian Airlines 1.97 1 1.00 1994 0.37 64
23 Olympic Airways 1.70 1 1.00 1989 0.46 67
24 THY Turkish Airlines 1.73 2 1.70 2003 1.15 77

ASIA - AUSTRALIA

Regional
Rank
Airline		 Million
Flights		 Fatal
Events		 Adj. Fatal
Event		 Last
Fatal
Accident		 Accident
Rate		 Overall
Rank
1-90
1 All Nippon Airways 3.86 0 0 (1971) -1.23 11
2 Japan Air Lines 2.47 0 0 (1985) -0.79 15
3 Qantas Airways 2.27 0 0 (1951) -0.72 17
4 Air New Zealand 1.17 0 0 (1979) -0.37 26
5 Malaysia Airlines 3.18 1 0.65 1995 -0.36 27
6 Hanin Airlines 1.11 0 0 None -0.35 28
7 Cathy Pacific Airways 0.97 0 0 (1972) -0.31 32
9 Virgin Blue 0.60 0 0 None -0.19 42
10 Air India 0.47 0 0 (1985) - 0.15 45
11 Dragon Air 0.28 0 0 None -0.09 50
12 Air China 2.33 1 0.77 2002 0.03 58
13 Asiana Airlines 1.42 1 0.62 1993 0.17 62
14 China Southern Airlines 3.04 2 1.51 1997 0.54 70
15 Singapore Airlines/SilkAir 1.29 2 1.50 2000 1.09 76
16 China Eastern Airlines 2.14 3 1.86 2004 1.18 78
17 Garuda Indonesian 1.53 4 1.79 2007 1.30 79
18 Korean Air 2.32 4 2.33 1997 1.59 81
19 Philippine Air Lines 0.90 4 2.08 1994 1.79 82
20 Thai Airways International 1.73 3 2.69 1998 2.14 85
21 Pakistan International Airlines 1.18 3 3.00 2006 2.62 86
22 Indian Air Lines 1.70 5 3.99 1999 3.45 88
23 China Airlines 0.75 5 4.72 2002 4.48 90

SOUTH/CENTRAL AMERICA - MEXICO-CARIBBEAN

Regional
Rank
Airline		 Million
Flights		 Fatal
Events		 Adj. Fatal
Event		 Last
Fatal
Accident		 Accident
Rate		 Overall
Rank
1-90
1 Aeromexico 2.05 0 0 (1986) -0.65 19
2 Mexicana Airlines 1.96 0 0 (1986) - 0.62 21
3 Aerolíneas Argentinas 1.00 0 0 (1970) -0.32 57
4 Air Jamacia 0.37 0 0 None -0.12 48
5 TACA International Airlines 0.42 1 .24 2000 0.11 59
6 Lan Chile Airlines 0.53 2 0.37 1991 0.20 63
7 Varig 2.38 2 1.24 1997 0.48 68
8 GOL Transportes Aereo 0.72 1 1.00 2006 0.77 73
9 TAM 1.78 4 2.06 2007 1.49 80
10 Avianca Colombian Airline 1.17 3 2.43 1990 2.06 84
11 Cubana 0.25 7 4.23 1999 4.15 89

AFRICA - MIDDLE EAST

Regional
Rank
Airline		 Million
Flights		 Fatal
Events		 Adj. Fatal
Event		 Last
Fatal
Accident		 Accident
Rate		 Overall
Rank
1-90
1 Emirates Airline 0.66 0 0 None -0.21 38
2 El Al 0.33 0 0 (1955) -0.11 49
3 Royal Jordanian Airline 0.27 0 0 (1979) -0.09 51
4 Kuwait Airways 0.30 1 0.02 1988 -0.08 53
5 Air Zimbabwe 0.18 0 0 (1979) -0.06 54
6 Oman Aviation 0.16 0 0 None -0.05 55
7 Saudi Arabian Airlines 1.93 1 1.00 1996 0.38 65
8 South African Airways 1.10 1 1.00 1987 0.65 72
9 Royal Air Maroc 0.59 1 1.00 1994 0.81 74
10 EgyptAir 0.81 2 1.20 2002 0.94 75
11 Kenya Air 0.35 2 1.94 2000 1.83 83
12 Iran Air 0.75 4 3.21 2002 2.97 87
Data for number of flights provided by OAGback Aviation Solutions

 

Regional Rank = rank of airline accident rate within airlines geographical region
Million Flights = number of departures
Fatal Events = number of flights on which at least one passenger was killed
Adjusted Fatal Event = see explanation below
Last Event = the year in which the last fatal accident took place (dates in parenthesis are accidents not included in the calculations because they are older than 20 years)
Accident Rate = see explanation below
Overall Rank = rank of airline accident rate including all airlines

The lower (more negative) the number in the "Accident Rate" column the better the rate. Any accident rate below 0 is a better than average rate. Any accident rate above 0 is a worse than average rate.

Methodology:

The Accident Rate is calculated as follows:

    Accident Rate = D - (A *(B/C))

    Where:

    A = number of million flights completed by the airline
    B = adjusted fatal events for all airlines
    C = number of million flights for all airlines
    D = adjusted fatal events of the airline

    The Adjusted Fatal Event is calculated as follows:

The actual fatal events is adjusted downward depending on what percentage of passengers were killed in each accident. The calculation of "D" or Adjusted Fatal Events is illustrated in the following example.

An airline has 3 accidents involving fatalities:
In the first accident 120 out of 120 passengers are killed.
In the second accident 75 out of 150 passengers are killed.
In the third accident 5 out of 200 passengers are killed.

120/120 = 1
75/150 = 0.5
5/200 = 0.025

Instead of 3 actual fatal events, the Adjusted Fatal Events becomes, 1 + 0.5 + 0.025 or 1.525.


 Airlines With No Passenger Fatalities

 

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